Jack Woollams
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Methods Lab · 03

PACE Productivity Impact Simulator

Adjust a synthetic transition scenario to see why raw productivity movement can mislead executives when demand, FTE, ramp-up, complexity, seasonality, and outliers are not controlled.

Public-safe model. This interactive uses synthetic, illustrative examples and is not connected to any employer, client, government, production, or internal operational system.

Scenario inputs

Raw productivity estimate 59
Adjusted productivity estimate 69.2
Raw decline 18%
Adjusted decline 3.9%

Synthetic, illustrative productivity trend

Recovery trend

Difference between raw and adjusted result: 14.1 percentage points.

Synthetic productivity recovery trend Synthetic trend showing estimated productivity recovery over eight weeks after transition.

Interpretation warning

Raw post-transition productivity should not be treated as a stable baseline because the scenario includes ramp-up or outlier controls.

Executive summary

Raw productivity suggests a decline of 18%. After adjusting for FTE, demand, ramp-up period, work type complexity, seasonality, and outlier treatment, the estimated impact is closer to 3.9%. This indicates the first 4 weeks should not be treated as a stable performance baseline.